Older vehicles and nearshoring shape automotive demand

Americans are keeping vehicles longer

U.S. consumers are hanging on to vehicles longer, expanding the number of vehicles in their second decade. As the need for maintenance and replacement parts grows, parts are also becoming more technologically advanced, changing planning needs for automotive logistics.

By the numbers

• The average U.S. passenger vehicle is now 12.94 years old, up from 12.8 years last year, according to data from the Auto Care Association and the automotive suppliers trade group MEMA. Cars average 15 years, while light trucks average 11.9 years.
• Of 294 million vehicles, 44.2% are at least 12 years old.
• People are hanging onto older cars even though new-vehicle sales reached 16.3 million in 2025, up 2.2% year-over-year (y/y) and the highest level since 2019, according to Cox Automotive.
• Economics are helping keep older cars on the road. The average new-car payment of about $770 per month, coupled with continued inflation, reinforces consumers' reliance on existing vehicles.

Aging cars mean growth in aftermarket parts

More vehicles are staying on the road at ages that require more maintenance and repairs, increasing demand for aftermarket parts and service.

• The aftermarket is supported by a massive base of almost 300 million vehicles. The U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket is projected to grow 5.2% in 2026 and exceed $500 billion by 2029, according to the Auto Care Association.
• Experian reports that 34.5% of U.S. light-duty vehicles are in the aftermarket “sweet spot,” defined as 6-12 years old.
• These vehicles are typically beyond their general manufacturer warranties and more likely to require replacement parts.

Auto repairs are becoming more technology-intensive

The aftermarket increasingly supports two needs at once: traditional mechanical maintenance and more tech-intensive repairs as newer vehicles move through their lifecycle. Diagnostics and calibration of electronic parts and sensors are becoming a standard part of the repair workflow.

• For the past couple of years, more than 70% of repairable collision appraisals have included a diagnostic scan and over 20% have included a calibration, according to the automotive claims and collision-repair technology provider CCC Intelligent Solutions.
• Added complexity also shows up in repairs that aren’t themselves tech-related. Windshield replacement, wheel alignment, or removing components to access a radiator can require Advanced Driver Assistance Systems cameras or radar systems to be recalibrated.
• As camera-equipped vehicles age, MEMA expects these services to grow at 9.5% annually through 2035.

Considerations for aftermarket logistics planning

• Automotive suppliers and distributors will need to balance traditional replacement parts with growing demand for sensors, cameras, and other tech components.
• Plan around vehicles already on the road, not just new-vehicle sales. Demand planning needs to account for vehicle age, vehicle type, technology, and geography.
• Item-level visibility can contribute to better inventory decisions, with better insights into parts in transit, predictive ETAs, and alerts for delays or shortages. The goal is having the right part in the right place exactly when it’s needed.

Automotive nearshoring and re-shoring under way

Automakers are increasingly acting on plans to bring production closer to the customers they serve. But localization is about more than where final assembly takes place.

Manufacturers are also looking at the supplier networks and logistics infrastructure surrounding their plants. As production footprints change, inbound parts flows, supplier locations, and transportation lanes can change with them.

In the real world: How automotive nearshoring is shaping up

• Audi announced in October that it plans to invest approximately $4 billion in Georgia for its first U.S. manufacturing plant. It would build premium SUVs for North American customers, producing up to 200,000 vehicles annually. Construction is scheduled to begin in 2027, with production beginning in the early 2030s.
• The location is significant. Audi specifically cited Georgia's established automotive-supplier network and logistics infrastructure among the site's advantages. The automaker also said it intends to develop a strong local supplier network around the new plant.
• Stellantis announced a supplier “co-location” program that will place selected suppliers at its headquarters in Auburn Hills, Michigan, to strengthen collaboration in areas such as vehicle design.
• Recent plans from other automakers include additional or relocated production by General Motors, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, and Subaru, while Hyundai opened its $7.6 billion Georgia manufacturing facility in 2025.

What should automakers and parts-makers do?

Moving final assembly closer to customers doesn't automatically localize the entire supply chain. Changes in assembly locations can create new freight flows even as established international and cross-border supply chains remain in place. Automotive companies are encouraged to:

• Map their supply chain beyond Tier 1 suppliers to understand where critical components originate and which suppliers and shipping lanes are most affected when production moves.
• Plan transportation alongside sourcing decisions. A supplier's proximity to an assembly plant is only one part of the equation. Keep in mind that changes in production can redistribute demand among ports, border crossings, rail ramps, and trucking lanes.
• Use item- and supplier-level demand signals. More granular visibility can help identify consolidation opportunities, improve truck utilization, and align transportation plans more closely with actual production demand.

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