Ryan: Welcome to the January edition of the Robinson Edge video. My name is Ryan Hammett, and I'm joined by my colleague, Mat Leo. Well, Mat, it was kind of a bumpy December for domestic freight, and the international trade focus has now shifted to the upcoming Lunar New Year and Suez Canal development. So let's dive into those and help our shipper audience understand how they can best consider these realities.

Mat: Sure. Let's start off with the U.S. truckload environment heading into early 2026. As I look at all the indicators, the biggest theme I keep coming back to is that the market feels fragile rather than strong. The spot rates are projected to rise year over year, dry van being up high single digits and reefer in the mid-single digits, but that's not because demand is booming.

It's really a capacity story. Carrier exits have continued, especially among small fleets. And while the market is still technically oversupplied, there's much less slack than we had a year ago. And that's why relatively minor disruptions such as winter weather, regional surges, and even short-term network imbalances are moving rates faster than shippers might expect.

Ryan: I agree, and I think that distinction matters a lot for how shippers should interpret our forecast for 2026. This doesn't look like the start of a classic upcycle where freight volumes exceed capacity and then pull rates higher across the board. Instead, it's more of a transition phase. Demand indicators tied to manufacturing, housing, retail, they're all still muted, but capacity is thinning enough that the market is more reactive.

So when something happens, like you mentioned a second ago, a snowstorm, upcoming produce season or port congestion, pricing responds quickly. So from a planning standpoint, shippers shouldn't assume stability just because demand feels soft on their side. The margin for error is shrinking.

Mat: Yeah, and that's it. That's exactly it. We're seeing a market where the baseline conditions are relatively calm, but the peaks and valleys are sharper.

Contract rates remain competitive, yet spot exposure is becoming more expensive in certain lanes and time windows. And importantly, carriers that survived the downturn are more disciplined, meaning they're less willing to chase that unprofitable freight just to keep their trucks moving. So for shippers, that means that service reliability increasingly favors those with strong route guides, clean tenders, and flexible appointment windows, not just those that pay the lowest rates.

Ryan: And I think that leads to a practical takeaway, Mat. I want shippers to know there's no need to panic, but they do need to be intentional. December was a test. Mat, you and I have been talking about this coming test for a long time. But it's been so many years with soft conditions, and there have been so many bumps and distractions along the way that I think this time it took folks a couple of weeks to realize, oh, this is really a test. So now is the time to evaluate how you did in December and evaluate what it means for the road ahead.

Pressure test routing guides, understand where backup capacity comes from, and decide where spot exposure is acceptable versus risky. Overall, I don't think the truckload market is tight, but I'd definitely say it's no longer forgiving.

Mat: Yeah, well said. And I'll wrap up the domestic truckload section with this because there are many factors that influence the market. We provide a high-level overview, but if you're interested in going a little deeper, we highlight some of those factors in our Robinson Edge report for January on our website. So I would encourage you to go out there and take a look.

Ryan: Shifting over to global freight, Lunar New Year, which starts February 17th, is the first major stress test of the year for ocean and air. On the ocean side, we typically see front-loaded volumes ahead of factory shutdowns across Asia, followed by a temporary lull.

This year, while that pattern is still there, demand for U.S. imports from Asia remains soft. And so far, there hasn't been a surge of orders from retailers restocking post-holiday inventories that we'd normally expect before Lunar New Year. But there is still time. That is also layered on top of steamship lines actively managing capacity through blank sailings.

Which means even modest demand surges can feel bigger at the port and inland levels, especially for drayage and transloading into the U.S.

Mat: Right, and that's where the ripple effect matters for North American shippers, is even if the import volumes in total are below last year, the concentration of freight into a shorter pre-Lunar New Year holiday window creates friction.

Ports start seeing bunching and warehouses see inbound spikes and suddenly domestic truckload capacity tightens in specific markets. And it's not a sustained surge, but rather a timing issue. So shippers who assume, well, overall volumes are down, so capacity will be easy, they're the ones who often get caught off guard during that Lunar New Year rush.

Ryan: Air freight tells a similar story, but with even more urgency. Ahead of Lunar New Year, shippers accelerate high value or time-sensitive goods, pushing demand towards air to avoid production stoppages. And that temporarily tightens air capacity, specifically trans-Pacific, and drives premium pricing, even though the broader air cargo market might remain balanced.

We're not talking about a year-long rate environment change. We're talking about a few weeks where planning mistakes can get expensive.

Mat: Exactly. And the takeaway here is really pretty straightforward. Lunar New Year isn't a surprise. You know, it happens every year. And the shippers that manage it well are the ones that align forecasts early and secure space in advance and think through inland impacts, not just the port-to-port transit.

Whether it's ocean or air, the cost of waiting usually outweighs the cost of planning. So another global factor worth watching is the slow and cautious return of some carriers to the Suez Canal. With select services restarting, there is potential for improved transit times compared to the longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope.

CMA CGM has begun testing Suez transits on its Indomex service, and Maersk has restarted its MECL service. Now, these aren't full-scale returns, but rather pilot efforts to test the waters. No pun intended there, Ryan. But if sustained, this could ease pressure on vessel schedules and downstream capacity planning, particularly for the Asia to Europe or for the Asia to U.S. East Coast, and for the India subcontinent trade lanes, where the impact of the Suez disruption has been especially pronounced.

Ryan: But the key word there, Mat, that you just said is if. Carriers are moving carefully and many are still hedging their bets. Insurance costs, security risks, geopolitical uncertainty — those things haven't disappeared. So as a result, the ocean network currently remains fragmented on this topic. Some services are returning to Suez, others are staying on longer routings.

During this trial period, a single security incident in the region could quickly push carriers back towards the Cape of Good Hope.

Mat: Very true. But a sustained return to the Suez could begin exerting modest downward pressure on rates, but any pricing impact would certainly lag. Carriers will likely need a few months of stable, predictable routing before adjusting those rates as operational uncertainty outweighs cost benefits in the near term.

Ryan: And until there's more clarity around the future of the Suez Canal, it remains critical to book early and maintain flexibility. Shippers that build buffers into their lead times and stay closely aligned with their logistics partners are in a much better position to absorb network shifts that might arise from varied transit times, lumpy vessel arrival, and stressed drayage. The Suez story isn't about rates dropping overnight. It's about reducing uncertainty, and we're not fully there yet.

Turning back to North America, trade dynamics across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada remain complex. Mexico continues to gain share in U.S. imports, particularly in non-automotive manufacturing, as the automotive sector faces some headwinds. And that's keeping cross-border volumes resilient, but also uneven. Certain corridors are strong, others are soft, and that creates lane-specific capacity challenges rather than system-wide ones.

Mat: And layered on top of all that are tariffs and policy shifts. Mexico's higher tariffs on certain Asian imports are influencing sourcing decisions while ongoing U.S. tariff discussions continue to inject uncertainty. And then on the Canadian side, administrative challenges like the customs and systems changes are causing delays that affect truck turn times and capacity availability.

And while none of these issues collapse trade flows, they all add friction.

Ryan: And the upcoming USMCA review in 2026 adds yet another layer of uncertainty, especially for automotive and advanced manufacturing supply chains. Rules of origin, content thresholds, and enforcement mechanisms are all in focus.

For shippers, this isn't just a trade compliance issue. It's a transportation planning issue. Changes in sourcing or production location directly reshape freight flows.

Mat: Yeah, and that's why the smartest shippers right now are scenario planning. They're asking questions like: What happens if this tariff stays? What happens if it changes? What happens if the Suez Canal opens up? And what happens if sourcing shifts?

So they take those and they map transportation strategies around those possibilities. Because cross-border freight in North America remains a growth opportunity, but it demands proactive planning and strong execution.

And then when you take a step back, Ryan, you look at all four of the topics we've discussed — truckload, ocean, air, and trade — the common theme here is timing. The market isn't booming, but it's far less forgiving than it was during the depth of the downturn.

Ryan: Exactly. Shippers that win in this environment are the ones that plan ahead, communicate early, and stay flexible. Whether it's securing capacity early, understanding where volatility can emerge, or aligning transportation strategy with trade policy, preparation is the advantage.

Mat: Yeah, and it's not about reacting faster — it's about anticipating better.

Ryan: And that's what separates cost control from cost surprises in 2026.

Mat: Exactly. Well, thank you all for watching today. And remember, C.H. Robinson goes further than anyone else in providing you with the edge you need to manage your complex global transportation strategy.